Indicator description

Why is it indicative

What does the data show

Data

Related Indicators

Acknowledgment

Indicator description

Annual greenhouse gas emissions, in carbon dioxide equivalents, in total and by sector. Following the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI), sectors are: stationary energy, transport, fugitive emissions from fuel, industrial processes, solvents, agriculture, land use change and forestry, and waste. The greenhouse gases controlled under Annex A of the Kyoto Protocol are carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆).

Why is it indicative

Human activities have led to an increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases over the last century. Australia is committed to restricting the increase in its greenhouse gas emissions to 8% above 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012.

What does the data show

• Tasmania is the only state in Australia to be a net sink for carbon dioxide emissions. In Tasmania, the Energy sector (Stationary and Transport sub-sectors) is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, but the Forestry and Other Sector is a larger sink.
   
• Significant work is still required to meet greenhouse gas emission objectives.
   

Data

This indicator is monitored on a national scale by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. The inventory has also in the past listed individual State's contributions.

Tasmanian emissions

The most recent consolidated Tasmanian emission data was published in 1998 for the years 1990 and 1995. The information was based on national figures, and may not perfectly reflect Tasmania's true level of emissions. They are however, the only source of consolidated Tasmanian information.

Studies such as those by the Department of Infrastructure, Energy and Resources (DIER 2000) suggest that components of the nationally derived figures may require slight adjustment. In the project report, the following major trends in the Tasmanian transport industry were noted.

Air transport.

• Tasmanian aviation industry activity has fluctuated, but overall has changed little between 1990 and 1998. The number of general-purpose aircraft registered in Tasmania increased by 20%, but from a relatively small base number of 87 registrations in 1990. The number of domestic aircraft movements at Hobart, Cambridge and Launceston airports fluctuated throughout the 1990s with no identifiable trend.
   
• The consumption of aviation fuels (Avgas and Avtur) decreased from about 35 ML in 1990 to just under 30 ML in 1998, a drop of roughly 15%.
   

Road transport.

• The overall number of vehicles registered in Tasmania rose by about 7%, primarily due to increases in the numbers of cars and motorcycles. The number of medium and heavy goods vehicles registered in Tasmania decreased, mainly due to the introduction of B-double freight routes, and heavy goods vehicle numbers almost halved.
   
• The consumption of petrol increased by just 1%. Automotive diesel oil (which is used by many marine craft as well as vehicles) rose by 11%, in part because of the phase-out of industrial diesel fuel.
   
• (Automotive) liquid petroleum gas consumption rose sharply from about 1995, rising from about 1 ML per year to about 23 ML per year, due to its increased availability at service stations.
   
• The balance of car petrol consumption rates has steadily moved to favour unleaded petrol, as the age profile of the vehicle fleet moves to favour vehicles manufactured after 1985.
   

Rail transport

• The indicator selected is the number of mainline trains operated by TASRAIL, which accounts for all, or almost all, such trains in Tasmania. The indicator shows an increase in the number of mainline trains over the period 1990-98, but in large part this is due to TASRAIL taking over the Emu Bay railway's stock.
   

Marine transport.

• The number of recreational vessels registered in Tasmania increased by 32% from the 1990 level of 9,979 vessels. However, this increase largely reflects a tightening of vessel registration requirements in the second half of the 1990s, such that the registration statistics now more fully represent the actual number of recreational vessels.
   
• The number of commercial vessels registered in Tasmania decreased overall by 88 vessels (8%) from the 1994 (data prior to 1994 were unavailable) level of 1,080 vessels, although there was an increase in vessels associated with aquaculture operations.
   
• Imports of industrial diesel oil was phased out in the 1990s, as the ability of high speed engines to use the (very similar) automotive diesel oil improved.
   
• Imports of heavy fuel oils reduced substantially in the early 1990s, as large (often international) vessels began to refuel at mainland ports, where fuel prices are lower. Imports of heavy fuel oils, to fuel vessels such as the Aurora Australis, has subsequently remained roughly constant.
   

The following information is taken from a report by the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO) (1998).

• In 1990, Tasmania's greenhouse gas removals totaled 2.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, excluding emissions from the Forest and Grassland Conversion (land clearing) sub-sector.
   
• In 1995, Tasmania's emissions decreased by 3.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, compared with 1990.
   
• An increased sink from the Forestry and Other subsector is primarily responsible for the decrease in Tasmania's emissions over this period. In contrast, emissions from Transport and Agriculture increased marginally.
   
• Although there have been changes in absolute emissions, the relative contribution of each sector to Tasmania's emissions in 1990 and in 1995 remained stable.
   
• Estimating emissions in the Land Use Change and Forestry Sector is complex and uncertain due to the inherent difficulties associated with measuring the large exchanges of greenhouse gases between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Since the publication of the earlier State and Territory inventories, the methodology for the Land Use Change and Forestry Sector has been revised.
   
• While these revisions represent major advances in our understanding, significant uncertainties still remain in the input data and methods associated with the land clearing (Forest and Grassland Conversion Subsector). Consequently, emissions associated with this sub-sector are currently excluded from the calculation of net total emissions. Adding land clearing emissions with their greater uncertainties to other sectors where emissions estimates generally have a relatively higher level of confidence magnifies the uncertainty in total emissions.
   

Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector, Tasmania 1990 and 1995 (excluding land clearing)

Sector	1990 CO 2 Equivalents (Mt)	1995 CO 2 Equivalents (Mt)	Change (Mt)
1. Energy Sector
Stationary Energy	2.6	2.0	-0.6
Transport	1.6	1.7	0.1
Fugitive emissions 2	0.0	0.0	0.0
Sub-Total	4.2	3.7	-0.5
2. Industrial Processes	1.0	0.7	-0.3
3. Solvent and Other Product Use	N/A	N/A	N/A
4. Agriculture	2.3	2.3	0.0
5. Forestry and Other	-10.0	-11.0	-1.0
6. Waste	0.4	0.4	0.0
Total	-2.2	-3.8	-1.6

1. 'Forestry and Other' excludes land clearing (Forest and Grassland Conversion). It comprises the removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere due to forest growth and pasture improvement and emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases due to forest harvesting and prescribed burning and wildfires. The figures presented here are net figures (gross emissions - gross removals).

2. N/A means not applicable

Source: AGO 1998

Stationary Energy emissions have decreased primarily due to a decrease in emissions associated with electricity generation. Emissions from the Energy and Transformation Industries sub-sector fell by 0.6 Mt.

Transport emissions have increased by 0.1 Mt as a result of an increase in emissions from road transport and civil aviation.

Fugitive emissions increased but emissions from this sub-sector are negligible.

Industrial Process emissions have declined by 0.3 Mt. A detailed sub-sectoral disaggregation of emissions in the sector is not possible for confidentiality reasons.

Agricultural emissions have increased by a trivial amount expressed in Mt predominantly due to an increase in emissions from enteric fermentation.

Forestry and Other emissions (excluding land clearing) have decreased by 1.0 Mt. The growth in Tasmania's forests increased the net sink within this sub-sector.

Waste emissions increased with the increase in the amount of solid waste disposed being the most significant contributor. However, the change in emissions for the Waste Sector needs to be interpreted with some caution because the emissions estimates for solid waste management do not take account any methane recovery from landfills in Tasmania during the early 1990s.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the Land Use Change and Forestry Sector, Tasmania 1990 and 1995

Land Use Change and Forestry	Net 1990 CO 2 Equivalents (Mt)	Net 1995 CO 2 Equivalents (Mt)
A. Changes in forest and other woody biomass (forestry)	-10.0	-10.9
B. Forest and grassland conversion (land clearing)	2.1	1.4
C. Abandonment of managed lands	NE	NE
D. Other (pasture improvement, prescribed burning and wildfires)	0.0	0.0
Total	-7.9	-9.6

NE means not estimated

Source: AGO 1998

State and Territory Emissions in CO2 Equivalents for 1990 and 1995 (excluding land clearing)

State/Territory	1990 Emissions (Mt)	1995 Emissions (Mt)	Change (Mt)
NSW and ACT	126.9	127.1	0.2
Tasmania	-2.2	-3.8	-1.6
Western Australia	42.6	49.4	6.8
South Australia	31.3	30.4	-0.9
Victoria	101.2	105.5	4.3
Queensland	70.2	83.5	13.3
Northern Territory	8.3	8.6	0.3
TOTAL	378.3	400.7	22.4

Source: AGO 1998

National emissions

The following national emission information is taken from Australian Greenhouse Office (2001)

In 1999, Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions totaled 458.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. This total excludes the contribution of the Forest and Grassland Conversion (land clearing) sub-sector. Emission estimates for this sub-sector have high uncertainties. In addition, changes in methodology and improvements in data availability mean that these estimates are subject to fluctuations that also make trends uncertain.

In summary:

• Total net national emissions (not including land clearing) increased by 17.4% (67.9 Mt) over the period 1990 to 1999. From 1998 to 1999, emissions increased by 1.1% (4.9 Mt).
   
• The Energy sector accounted for 79.6% of total net national emissions in 1999 (see Greenhouse gas emissions by sector, Australia 1999). Energy emissions increased by 21.7% from 299.5 Mt to 364.6 Mt between 1990 and 1999, with a sharp rise from 1994 to 1998. Stationary Energy (comprising Energy Industries, Manufacturing Industries and Construction, Other Sectors, and Other) was the main contributor, accounting for 56.7 % (259.8 Mt) of total net national emissions, followed by Transport with 16.1% (73.9 Mt). Stationary Energy emissions increased by 24.6% (51.3 Mt) between 1990 and 1999, and by 1.2% (3.2 Mt) from 1998 to 1999.
   
• Agricultural emissions made up 20.5% of the total for 1999. Agriculture contributed 93.8 Mt in 1999, a 1.9% (1.7 Mt) increase from 1998 and a 2.9% (2.7 Mt) increase from 1990.
   
• The Forestry and Other subsectors constituted a sink of 25.9 Mt in 1999 (equivalent to 5.6% of total net national emissions). The net sink decreased by 5.1% (1.4 Mt) since 1990 but increased by 3.3% (0.8 Mt) since 1998.
   
• Industrial Processes and Waste are minor sources of emissions contributing 2.1% (9.7 Mt) and 3.5% (16.0 Mt) of total net national emissions respectively. Emissions from Industrial Processes decreased by 19.8% (2.4 Mt) between 1990 and 1999 primarily due to reductions in perfluorocarbon emissions from aluminium smelting. There was a 1.8% (0.2 Mt) decrease from 1998 to 1999 as a result of further reductions in perfluorocarbon emissions. Waste emissions increased by 7.6% (1.1 Mt) between 1990 and 1999, and increased by 3.2% (0.5 Mt) from 1998 to 1999 due to an increase in methane generated and a decline in methane recovered from solid waste.
   

Australian total net national greenhouse gas emissions, 1999 (excluding Forest and Grassland Conversion)

Greenhouse Gas	Mt	GWP	Mt CO 2-e	% of total
CO 2	313.5	1	313.5	68.4
CH 4	5.4	21	114.4	25.0
N 2 O	0.094	310	29.3	6.4
NO x	2.6	NA	NA	NA
CO	19.7	NA	NA	NA
NMVOC	2.1	NA	NA	NA
PFCs	0.0001	9,200	1.0	0.2
SF 6	0 2	23,900	0.004	0
SO 2	1.8	NA	NA	NA
Total CO 2-e	NA	NA	458.2	100

1. Values may not add due to rounding.
    
2. Excludes emissions of SF₆ from electricity transmission and distribution but includes emissions from magnesium production.
    
3. Emissions of HFCs are not shown because of a very high level of uncertainty associated with current data.
    

Source: AGO 2001

Greenhouse gas emissions by sector, Australia 1999

Caption: The contribution of each sector to the emissions of the main greenhouse gases, with the Forest and Grassland Conversion subsector excluded. Total carbon dioxide equivalent (CO_2-e) emissions and their percentage of the total emissions are also shown.

Sector and Sub-sector	CO 2		CH 4		N 2 O		CO 2-e
	Mt	%	Mt	%	Mt	%	Mt	%
1 All Energy (Combustion + Fugitive)	332.9	106.2	1.3	23.4	0.016	16.9	364.6	79.6
Stationary Energy	256.9	81.9	0.09	1.7	0.003	3.5	259.8	56.7
Transport	69.5	22.2	0.02	0.4	0.013	13.4	73.9	16.1
Fugitive Emissions from Fuel	6.5	2.1	1.16	21.3	0.000	0.1	30.8	6.7
2 Industrial Processes	7.9	2.5	0.00	0.1	0.002	2.3	9.7 3	2.1
3 Solvent and Other Product Use	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
4 Agriculture	NA	NA	3.36	61.6	0.075	79.7	93.8	20.5
5 Forestry and Other 4	-27.3	(8.7)*	0.05	1.0	0.001	1.0	-25.9	(5.6)*
6 Waste	0.0	0.0	0.76	14.0	0.000	0.0	16.0	3.5
Total Net National Emissions	313.5	100.0	5.44	100.0	0.094	100.0	458.2	100.0

• Values may not add due to rounding.
   
• ( )* Denotes the size of the sink as a percentage of Total Net National Emissions.
   
• Includes PFCs (aluminium) and SF₆ used in magnesium production.
   
• Includes sinks comprising incremental forest growth and pasture improvement minus emissions from wildfires and prescribed burning. Forests and Other Woody Biomass Stocks comprise forestry (sub-sector 5A); 'Other' comprises pasture improvement, wildfires and prescribed burning (sub-sectors 5D and 5E respectively).
   

Source: AGO 2001

Kyoto Protocol

The following has been extracted from Australian Greenhouse Office (2000).

Under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries agreed to reduce their collective greenhouse gas emissions by at least 5% of their 1990 levels over the first commitment period 2008-12. Each country received a specific target under the Protocol reflecting its particular national circumstances. Australia's target requires it to limit the growth of its emissions to 8% above 1990 levels by 2008-12.

Growth in emissions for 1990-98 (16.9%), as identified in the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI) figures (which differ from Kyoto Protocol accounting definitions), was higher than anticipated as a result of a higher than expected rate of economic growth. Data collected in 1998 does not reflect to any significant degree the impact of the National Greenhouse Strategy (NGS), however, which will be seen progressively from 1999.

The Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO) is currently working towards the publication of a revised set of emissions projections using Kyoto Protocol accounting definitions. Although estimates of savings from measures undertaken by States and Territories are not yet complete, preliminary work indicates Commonwealth and nationally coordinated NGS measures will reduce 2010 'business as usual' emissions by 58 to 64 million tonnes (Mt), around 14-16 % of 1990 levels, excluding emissions from land clearing. Overall, therefore, emissions are currently expected to reach around 121-123 % of 1990 levels, excluding land clearing, in 2010.

These projection figures do not yet take account of the major new Commonwealth measures to combat emissions growth announced in the Measures for a Better Environment package in 1999. These build on NGS commitments and include: $400 million over four years for major greenhouse gas abatement projects through the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Program (GGAP); and $396 million to encourage increased use of alternative fuels and boost substantially the level of Commonwealth support for the development, commercialisation and use of renewable energy.

When the impact of these 1999 measures is taken into account, as well as the opportunities likely to be presented by international flexibility mechanisms currently being negotiated, the Government expects that Australia will be able to meet its Kyoto target. The 1998 NGGI results and current preliminary projections using Kyoto Protocol accounting definitions confirm that continuing significant effort will be required to address emissions growth over the next decade. While Australia's Kyoto target remains achievable, continued commitment will be required, from governments and from the wider community, if Australia is to stay on track to meet that target.

Related Indicators

Acknowledgment

ANZECC Core Indicator A5 (ANZECC 2000)